VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.35 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

VfL Wolfsburg win

61.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VfL Wolfsburg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Energie Cottbus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.35 for Energie Cottbus, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

VfL Wolfsburg win61%

Draw19%

Energie Cottbus win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–19.1%
1–17.5%
3–17.4%
2–06.7%
2–26.1%

Recent form

VfL Wolfsburg

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 4-4 (D)
2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 0-1 (L)

Energie Cottbus

2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · VfL Wolfsburg 4-4 Energie Cottbus (2. Bundesliga)

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	9	8	1	0	12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	9	5	3	1	9	18
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	9	5	3	1	5	18
4	VfL Wolfsburg	9	4	4	1	9	16
5	1. FC Magdeburg	9	5	1	3	8	16
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	4	3	2	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	2	6	1	2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	9	3	2	4	-1	11
9	Energie Cottbus	9	2	4	3	-1	10
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	2	2	4	-4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	VfL Bochum	9	2	2	5	-4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Karlsruher SC	9	2	2	5	-9	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	2	2	5	-10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	2	1	5	-2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	0	5	3	-4	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is VfL Wolfsburg win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.