· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
VfL Wolfsburg vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 2.15 for Lyon, a combined total of 4.90. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfL Wolfsburg win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Wolfsburg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 18% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 2.15 for Lyon, a combined 4.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.5%
- 2–16.1%
- 3–26.0%
- 3–15.5%
- 1–24.7%
Recent form
VfL Wolfsburg
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 5-2 (W)
Lyon
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 Lyon (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-07-17T19:05:00.000Z · VfL Wolfsburg 1-4 Lyon (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfL Wolfsburg win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.