VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.77 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 0.99 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

VfL Wolfsburg win

74.4% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.77 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VfL Wolfsburg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Darmstadt 98 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.77 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 0.99 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

VfL Wolfsburg win74%

Draw15%

SV Darmstadt 98 win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–08.9%
2–18.8%
3–08.2%
3–18.2%
1–06.4%

Recent form

VfL Wolfsburg

2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 5-2 (W)

SV Darmstadt 98

2026-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is VfL Wolfsburg win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.