· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
VfL Wolfsburg vs Telstar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.72 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfL Wolfsburg win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Wolfsburg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Telstar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 21% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.72 for Telstar, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
VfL Wolfsburg
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 4-4 (D)
Telstar
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 Telstar (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfL Wolfsburg win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.