Volkswagen Arena · Analysis updated 04:36 UTC
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.55 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
VfL Wolfsburg win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Wolfsburg home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Osnabrück away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.55 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
VfL Wolfsburg
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
VfL Osnabrück
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfL Wolfsburg win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.