OSTALB ARENA · Analysis updated 11:41 UTC
VfR Aalen vs Eintracht Trier Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for VfR Aalen and 1.58 for Eintracht Trier, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Eintracht Trier the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eintracht Trier win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfR Aalen home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eintracht Trier away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eintracht Trier to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 17% / 25% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for VfR Aalen and 1.58 for Eintracht Trier, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.2%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
VfR Aalen
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Offenbach · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SGV Freiberg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 0-0 (D)
Eintracht Trier
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Steinbach · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Offenbach · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 2-0 Eintracht Trier (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2023-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 0-0 Eintracht Trier (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2022-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 3-1 Eintracht Trier (Regionalliga - SudWest)
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 27 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Eintracht Trier | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 6 | Kickers Offenbach | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | FC 08 Homburg | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | SV Sandhausen | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Hessen Kassel | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Frankfurt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Kaiserslautern II | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 11 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eintracht Trier win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.