VfR Aalen vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for VfR Aalen and 3.15 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, a combined total of 4.68. That distribution gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win

69.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 3.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VfR Aalen home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

VfR Aalen win16%

Draw15%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win70%

Double chance 1X

31%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–37.4%
1–27.1%
1–45.8%
2–35.6%
2–25.4%

Recent form

VfR Aalen

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Offenbach · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SGV Freiberg · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 0-0 (D)

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-21T16:30:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 2-2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-05-10T13:30:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 0-2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)
2024-10-26T13:30:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 0-2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)
2022-03-11T18:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 1-2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2021-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 2-1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2021-05-29T12:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 2-3 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2020-12-12T13:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 0-0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2019-02-22T18:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 1-1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (3. Liga)
2018-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 1-1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (3. Liga)
2018-02-10T13:00:00.000Z · VfR Aalen 4-1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (3. Liga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.