· Analysis updated 17:37 UTC
VfR Mannheim vs SGV Freiberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for VfR Mannheim and 1.23 for SGV Freiberg, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives VfR Mannheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfR Mannheim home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SGV Freiberg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfR Mannheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for VfR Mannheim and 1.23 for SGV Freiberg, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
VfR Mannheim
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfR Aalen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 2-1 (W)
SGV Freiberg
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Offenbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 27 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Eintracht Trier | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 6 | Kickers Offenbach | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | FC 08 Homburg | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | SV Sandhausen | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Hessen Kassel | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Frankfurt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Kaiserslautern II | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 11 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.