· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Vianense vs Minas de Argozelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for Vianense and 1.26 for Minas de Argozelo, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Vianense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vianense win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.66 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vianense home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vianense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for Vianense and 1.26 for Minas de Argozelo, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 67%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–16.6%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Vianense
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela Calheta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacos Ferreira · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Minas de Argozelo · 8-0 (W)
Minas de Argozelo
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 0-8 (L)
- 2017-09-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cova De Piedade · 0-4 (L)
- 2017-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Arcos · 5-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vianense win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.