Vianense vs Pacos Ferreira Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vianense and 0.77 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Vianense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vianense win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vianense home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vianense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Vianense and 0.77 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Vianense win61%

Draw23%

Pacos Ferreira win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.0%
2–012.3%
1–110.9%
2–19.5%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Vianense

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela Calheta · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacos Ferreira · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Minas de Argozelo · 8-0 (W)

Pacos Ferreira

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Varzim · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	6	4	1	1	4	13
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Leça	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	AD Marco 09	6	3	1	2	1	10
3	Oliveirense	6	2	3	1	0	9
4	Vianense	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Mafra	6	2	2	2	4	8
5	Fafe	6	2	3	1	4	9
5	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
6	Varzim	6	3	0	3	2	9
6	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
7	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
7	Caldas	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-4	5
8	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Trofense	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	-4	5
10	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vianense win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.