· Analysis updated 19:28 UTC
Vianense vs São João Ver Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Vianense and 0.98 for São João Ver, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Vianense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vianense win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vianense home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
São João Ver away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vianense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Vianense and 0.98 for São João Ver, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
Vianense
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela Calheta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacos Ferreira · 2-2 (D)
São João Ver
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Marco 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Florgrade · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trofense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Fafe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Leça | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Mafra | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Caldas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Pacos Ferreira | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Trofense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vianense win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.