Stadio Luigi Razza · Analysis updated 18:22 UTC
Vibonese vs Acireale Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Vibonese and 0.76 for Acireale, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Vibonese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vibonese win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vibonese home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Acireale away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.2%
Recent form
Vibonese
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Digiesse PraiaTortora · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nissa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Palermo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Igea Virtus · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Siracusa · 1-1 (D)
Acireale
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vibonese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vibonese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ragusa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gelbison · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nissa · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Vibonese 1-0 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Vibonese 1-0 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · Vibonese 2-2 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2025-03-23T13:30:00.000Z · Vibonese 1-1 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2024-11-20T13:30:00.000Z · Vibonese 2-3 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2024-03-28T14:00:00.000Z · Vibonese 0-1 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2023-11-19T13:30:00.000Z · Vibonese 1-1 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2023-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · Vibonese 2-0 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2022-11-20T13:30:00.000Z · Vibonese 0-0 Acireale (Serie D - Girone I)
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vibonese win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.