Energi Viborg Arena · Analysis updated 00:09 UTC
Viborg vs AC Horsens Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Viborg and 0.74 for AC Horsens, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Viborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Viborg win
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Viborg home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AC Horsens away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 1.42 | 64.7% | 65.1% | 1.54 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.2% | 21.2% | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 14.1% | 13.7% | 7.30 | -0.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Viborg
- 2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Randers FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 4-1 (W)
AC Horsens
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Silkeborg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · Viborg 3-2 AC Horsens (Superliga)
- 2025-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · Viborg 1-0 AC Horsens (DBU Pokalen)
- 2024-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · Viborg 4-0 AC Horsens (DBU Pokalen)
- 2024-01-25T12:00:00.000Z · Viborg 4-2 AC Horsens (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-02-26T13:00:00.000Z · Viborg 3-0 AC Horsens (Superliga)
- 2022-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Viborg 2-1 AC Horsens (Superliga)
- 2022-07-09T11:00:00.000Z · Viborg 5-4 AC Horsens (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2016-12-03T15:00:00.000Z · Viborg 2-1 AC Horsens (Superliga)
- 2016-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · Viborg 2-4 AC Horsens (Superliga)
- 2015-04-25T12:30:00.000Z · Viborg 0-0 AC Horsens (1. Division)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Midtjylland | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Viborg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Brondby | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Odense | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Silkeborg | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Randers FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 11 | Lyngby | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Viborg win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.