Viborg vs Sonderjyske Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Viborg and 1.01 for Sonderjyske, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Viborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Viborg win

69.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.46 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Viborg home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sonderjyske away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Viborg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Viborg and 1.01 for Sonderjyske, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Viborg win69%

Draw17%

Sonderjyske win14%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.5%
2–09.5%
3–17.8%
3–07.8%
1–17.7%

Recent form

Viborg

2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Randers FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 4-1 (W)

Sonderjyske

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyngby · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Horsens · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Superliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Midtjylland	12	8	4	0	11	28
2	FC Copenhagen	11	8	1	2	14	25
3	Viborg	12	6	2	4	7	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	12	5	5	2	4	20
5	Brondby	12	6	1	5	1	19
6	AC Horsens	12	4	4	4	3	16
7	Odense	11	3	4	4	-5	13
8	Aarhus	12	2	6	4	-2	12
9	Silkeborg	12	2	6	4	-4	12
10	Randers FC	12	3	2	7	-7	11
11	Lyngby	12	1	5	6	-10	8
12	Sonderjyske	12	2	2	8	-12	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Viborg win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.