Stadio Giorgio Calbi · Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Victor San Marino vs Sammaurese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Victor San Marino and 1.18 for Sammaurese, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Victor San Marino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Victor San Marino win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Victor San Marino home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sammaurese away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Victor San Marino
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recanatese · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sammaurese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Notaresco · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teramo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sora · 2-2 (D)
Sammaurese
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Victor San Marino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Ascoli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ancona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Termoli Calcio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Aquila · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Victor San Marino 1-0 Sammaurese (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · Victor San Marino 0-0 Sammaurese (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2025-04-13T13:00:00.000Z · Victor San Marino 1-0 Sammaurese (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2024-12-01T13:30:00.000Z · Victor San Marino 0-0 Sammaurese (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2024-03-28T13:30:00.000Z · Victor San Marino 0-1 Sammaurese (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2023-11-19T13:30:00.000Z · Victor San Marino 1-0 Sammaurese (Serie D - Girone D)
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Teramo | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Notaresco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Ancona | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Fossombrone | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Montecchio Gallo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Giulianova | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Santegidiese | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Pietralunga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Maceratese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Recanatese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Angelana | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Sporting Trestina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Victor San Marino win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.