· Analysis updated 11:52 UTC
Victoria Bardar vs Făleşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Victoria Bardar and 1.15 for Făleşti, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Făleşti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.8% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Victoria Bardar home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Făleşti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Făleşti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 31% / 30% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Victoria Bardar and 1.15 for Făleşti, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.8%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Victoria Bardar
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Oguzsport · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC National Ialoveni · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Stăuceni · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Făleşti · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oguzsport · 1-1 (D)
Făleşti
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Stăuceni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC National Ialoveni · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oguzsport · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Bardar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Bardar · 3-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iskra | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Vulturii Cutezători | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Făleşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Zimbru II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC National Ialoveni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Univer Comrat | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.