Victoria Hamburg vs Pinneberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Victoria Hamburg and 2.78 for Pinneberg, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Pinneberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pinneberg win

59.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 2.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Victoria Hamburg home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pinneberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pinneberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 23% / 18% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Victoria Hamburg and 2.78 for Pinneberg, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Victoria Hamburg win23%

Draw18%

Pinneberg win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

1–27.4%
1–36.8%
2–26.4%
2–35.9%
1–15.3%

Recent form

Victoria Hamburg

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Teutonia Ottensen · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sasel · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Süderelbe · 1-1 (D)

Pinneberg

2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Hamburg · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs HT16 · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-23T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	13	9	2	2	13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	7	5	1	11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	7	2	3	16	23
5	HT16	13	7	2	4	14	23
6	Niendorfer TSV	13	7	2	4	3	23
7	Altona 93	12	6	3	3	5	21
8	Pinneberg	12	6	2	4	6	20
9	Sasel	13	6	2	5	-1	20
10	Süderelbe	13	5	3	5	3	18
11	HEBC	13	5	0	8	-4	15
12	Buchholz	13	4	3	6	-10	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	3	2	7	-2	11
16	Concordia	13	3	2	8	-15	11
17	Harksheide	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pinneberg win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.