· Analysis updated 08:44 UTC
Victoria Rosport vs Marisca Mersch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Victoria Rosport and 2.18 for Marisca Mersch, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Victoria Rosport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Victoria Rosport home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Marisca Mersch away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Victoria Rosport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 20% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Victoria Rosport and 2.18 for Marisca Mersch, a combined 4.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–26.6%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
Victoria Rosport
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanem · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs US Hostert · 0-2 (L)
Marisca Mersch
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ALSS Luxembourg · 4-2 (W)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · Victoria Rosport 1-1 Marisca Mersch (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-05-26T14:00:00.000Z · Victoria Rosport 2-0 Marisca Mersch (National Division)
- 2023-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Victoria Rosport 2-1 Marisca Mersch (National Division)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.