· Analysis updated 18:39 UTC
Victoria vs Lobos Upnfm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Victoria and 1.63 for Lobos Upnfm, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Lobos Upnfm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Victoria home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lobos Upnfm away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Victoria
- 2026-05-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Espana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Génesis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Juticalpa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Olancho · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-17T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Motagua · 2-3 (L)
Lobos Upnfm
- 2026-10-18T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Independiente · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Espana · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T01:30:00.000Z · Victoria 3-2 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-02-12T23:15:00.000Z · Victoria 2-2 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-10-26T00:30:00.000Z · Victoria 0-1 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-08-16T23:25:00.000Z · Victoria 0-2 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-04-02T23:15:00.000Z · Victoria 0-0 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-02-04T01:00:00.000Z · Victoria 1-1 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-11-02T23:15:00.000Z · Victoria 1-1 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-08-25T21:00:00.000Z · Victoria 2-1 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-04-20T01:00:00.000Z · Victoria 0-1 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-02-24T21:00:00.000Z · Victoria 4-2 Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Independiente | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.