· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Victoria Września vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Victoria Września and 1.23 for Lipno Stęszew, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Victoria Września the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Victoria Września home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lipno Stęszew away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Victoria Września to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Victoria Września and 1.23 for Lipno Stęszew, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Victoria Września
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Noteć Czarnków · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Swarzędz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Grom Nowy Staw · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gedania Gdansk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipno Stęszew · 1-1 (D)
Lipno Stęszew
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gedania Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalisz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Września · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Luzino | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Elana Toruń | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Gedania Gdansk | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Kalisz | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Grom Nowy Staw | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Flota Świnoujście | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 15 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | Kotwica Kórnik | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.