Victoria Września vs Noteć Czarnków Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Victoria Września and 1.65 for Noteć Czarnków, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Noteć Czarnków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Victoria Września home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Noteć Czarnków away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Noteć Czarnków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Victoria Września and 1.65 for Noteć Czarnków, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Victoria Września win37%

Draw23%

Noteć Czarnków win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–28.5%
2–18.1%
2–26.7%
0–16.6%

Recent form

Victoria Września

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Swarzędz · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Grom Nowy Staw · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gedania Gdansk · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipno Stęszew · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 1-1 (D)

Noteć Czarnków

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kotwica Kórnik · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Flota Świnoujście · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzino · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Środa · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-04T10:00:00.000Z · Victoria Września 0-0 Noteć Czarnków (III Liga - Group 2)
2025-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · Victoria Września 1-0 Noteć Czarnków (III Liga - Group 2)

III Liga - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Środa	13	10	3	0	20	33
2	Luzino	13	9	1	3	20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	7	3	3	2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	7	1	4	2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	5	4	4	7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	5	3	4	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	5	2	6	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	4	5	4	-2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	5	1	7	1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	4	3	6	1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	3	6	4	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	4	2	7	-7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	2	6	5	-7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	2	6	5	-11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	3	2	8	-10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	3	2	8	-16	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.