· Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
Vidar vs Brattvåg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Vidar and 2.46 for Brattvåg, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Brattvåg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brattvåg win
75.1% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.46
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vidar home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Brattvåg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brattvåg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 9% / 16% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Vidar and 2.46 for Brattvåg, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.3%
- 0–310.1%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–37.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 52.2% vs market 37.5%, edge +14.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 37.5% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +14.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 4.00 | 23.7% | 24.9% | 4.02 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 10.00 | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.87 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.80 | 15.6% | 15.7% | 6.37 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.04 | 91.0% | 90.8% | 1.10 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.20 | 75.4% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 85.3% | 84.3% | 1.19 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 62.5% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -14.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vidar
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kvik Halden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Brattvåg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pors Grenland · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjondalen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 1-0 (W)
Brattvåg
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mjondalen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjarg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vidar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sotra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arendal · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · Vidar 1-3 Brattvåg (2. Division - Group 1)
- 2026-04-26T12:30:00.000Z · Vidar 0-3 Brattvåg (2. Division - Group 1)
- 2019-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · Vidar 2-2 Brattvåg (2. Division - Group 1)
- 2019-05-12T13:00:00.000Z · Vidar 2-0 Brattvåg (2. Division - Group 1)
2. Division - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 56 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Bjarg | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 50 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 25 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 50 |
| 5 | Sotra | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 45 |
| 6 | Notodden | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 35 |
| 7 | Træff | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -7 | 35 |
| 8 | Kvik Halden | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Arendal | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | Pors Grenland | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 25 | 4 | 1 | 20 | -28 | 13 |
| 14 | Vidar | 25 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -42 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brattvåg win, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.