· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Vidar vs Træff Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Vidar and 2.58 for Træff, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Træff the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Træff win
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vidar home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Træff away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Træff to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 17% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Vidar and 2.58 for Træff, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–17.1%
- 0–36.4%
Recent form
Vidar
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Brattvåg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pors Grenland · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjondalen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjarg · 1-4 (L)
Træff
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mjondalen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Halden · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjarg · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs hodd · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · Vidar 1-1 Træff (2. Division - Group 1)
2. Division - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 56 |
| 2 | Bjarg | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 50 |
| 3 | Mjondalen | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 50 |
| 4 | Brattvåg | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Sotra | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 42 |
| 6 | Notodden | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 35 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 34 |
| 8 | Træff | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Arendal | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 30 |
| 10 | Pors Grenland | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 29 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 25 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -20 | 19 |
| 13 | Vidar | 24 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -40 | 13 |
| 14 | Eik-Tønsberg | 24 | 3 | 1 | 20 | -31 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Træff win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.