My Dinh National Stadium · Referee M. Cheung · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Vietnam vs Cambodia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.08 expected goals for Vietnam and 0.77 for Cambodia, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Vietnam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vietnam win
82.7% probability
Expected goals
3.08 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vietnam home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambodia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vietnam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 11% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.08 goals for Vietnam and 0.77 for Cambodia, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.4%
- 2–010.1%
- 4–08.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Vietnam
- 2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 2-2 (D)
Cambodia
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Championship table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vietnam win, at 82.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.