My Dinh National Stadium · Referee Y. Ohashi · Analysis updated 10:55 UTC
Vietnam vs Malaysia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vietnam and 0.77 for Malaysia, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Vietnam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vietnam win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vietnam home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malaysia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Vietnam
- 2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 2-2 (D)
Malaysia
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Laos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z · Vietnam 0-1 Malaysia (FIFA Asean Cup)
- 2026-08-19T13:00:00.000Z · Vietnam 2-0 Malaysia (ASEAN Championship)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · Vietnam 2-0 Malaysia (ASEAN Championship)
- 2026-03-31T12:00:00.000Z · Vietnam 3-1 Malaysia (Asian Cup - Qualification)
- 2025-06-10T13:00:00.000Z · Vietnam 0-4 Malaysia (Asian Cup - Qualification)
- 2022-12-27T12:30:00.000Z · Vietnam 3-0 Malaysia (AFF Championship)
- 2021-12-12T12:30:00.000Z · Vietnam 3-0 Malaysia (AFF Championship)
- 2021-06-11T16:45:00.000Z · Vietnam 2-1 Malaysia (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2019-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · Vietnam 1-0 Malaysia (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2018-12-15T12:30:00.000Z · Vietnam 1-0 Malaysia (AFF Championship)
ASEAN Championship table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vietnam win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.