My Dinh National Stadium · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Vietnam vs Thailand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Vietnam and 0.90 for Thailand, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Vietnam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vietnam win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vietnam home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thailand away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vietnam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Vietnam and 0.90 for Thailand, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.8%
Recent form
Vietnam
- 2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 2-2 (D)
Thailand
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Championship table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vietnam win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.