· Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
VIFK W vs Ilves W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for VIFK W and 2.52 for Ilves W, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Ilves W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ilves W win
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VIFK W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ilves W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 13% / 17% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for VIFK W and 2.52 for Ilves W, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–37.7%
- 1–17.4%
Recent form
VIFK W
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs JyPK W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 1-6 (L)
Ilves W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ilves W win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.