· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Vigor Lamezia vs Igea Virtus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Vigor Lamezia and 2.39 for Igea Virtus, a combined total of 4.19. That distribution gives Igea Virtus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Igea Virtus win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 2.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vigor Lamezia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Igea Virtus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Igea Virtus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 29% / 20% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Vigor Lamezia and 2.39 for Igea Virtus, a combined 4.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–16.5%
- 1–36.2%
- 2–15.9%
Recent form
Vigor Lamezia
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CastrumFavara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sambiase · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggina · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Igea Virtus · 2-2 (D)
Igea Virtus
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Lamezia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Messina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vibonese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Savoia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Vigor Lamezia 4-1 Igea Virtus (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2025-12-21T14:00:00.000Z · Vigor Lamezia 1-1 Igea Virtus (Serie D - Girone I)
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Licata | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vibonese | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milazzo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Nissa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | AC Palermo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Modica | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Gela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Igea Virtus win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.