· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Vigor Senigallia vs Ancona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vigor Senigallia and 1.20 for Ancona, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Vigor Senigallia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vigor Senigallia home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vigor Senigallia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Vigor Senigallia and 1.20 for Ancona, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Vigor Senigallia
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teramo · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fossombrone · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Termoli Calcio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanciano FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Giulianova · 1-0 (W)
Ancona
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 14 |
| 2 | Teramo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Ancona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Fossombrone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 7 | Notaresco | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Montecchio Gallo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Santegidiese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Real Giulianova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Maceratese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Atletico Ascoli | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Recanatese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Angelana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Pietralunga | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.