Vigor Senigallia vs Atletico Ascoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Vigor Senigallia and 1.21 for Atletico Ascoli, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Vigor Senigallia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vigor Senigallia win

58.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vigor Senigallia home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Ascoli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vigor Senigallia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Vigor Senigallia and 1.21 for Atletico Ascoli, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Vigor Senigallia win59%

Draw21%

Atletico Ascoli win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–19.1%
2–08.0%
1–07.5%
3–16.9%

Recent form

Vigor Senigallia

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teramo · 4-6 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fossombrone · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Termoli Calcio · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanciano FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Giulianova · 1-0 (W)

Atletico Ascoli

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Senigallia · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fossombrone · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Giulianova · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Trestina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Aquila · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone F table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	L'Aquila	6	4	2	0	10	14
2	Teramo	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	4	1	1	1	13
5	Ancona	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Fossombrone	6	3	1	2	-3	10
7	Notaresco	6	2	2	2	0	8
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Real Giulianova	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Lanciano FC	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Maceratese	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Recanatese	6	1	3	2	-1	6
16	Angelana	6	1	1	4	-4	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vigor Senigallia win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.