· Analysis updated 07:09 UTC
Vigor Senigallia vs Real Giulianova Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Vigor Senigallia and 1.50 for Real Giulianova, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Vigor Senigallia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vigor Senigallia win
74.7% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vigor Senigallia home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Giulianova away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vigor Senigallia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 13% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Vigor Senigallia and 1.50 for Real Giulianova, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.2%
- 4–16.3%
- 2–16.2%
- 3–25.4%
- 3–04.8%
Recent form
Vigor Senigallia
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ancona · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Santegidiese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Ascoli · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teramo · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fossombrone · 0-0 (D)
Real Giulianova
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pietralunga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Foligno Calcio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ancona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Santegidiese · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Ascoli · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Vigor Senigallia 1-0 Real Giulianova (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2026-01-11T13:30:00.000Z · Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Real Giulianova (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Vigor Senigallia 1-1 Real Giulianova (Serie D - Girone F)
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Teramo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Ancona | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vigor Senigallia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Notaresco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Real Giulianova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Montecchio Gallo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Recanatese | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Santegidiese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Pietralunga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Maceratese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Angelana | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vigor Senigallia win, at 74.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.