Spartak Stadium · Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Vihren vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Vihren and 1.18 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Vihren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vihren win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vihren to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Vihren and 1.18 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 63%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
Vihren
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets Balchik · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Hebar 1918 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | Vihren | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Beroe | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Hebar 1918 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Yantra 2019 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 10 | Marek | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Nesebar | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 15 | Sportist Svoge | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -31 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vihren win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.