Viking II vs Varhaug Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Viking II and 1.47 for Varhaug, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Viking II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Viking II win

56.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.29 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Viking II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varhaug away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Viking II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for Viking II and 1.47 for Varhaug, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Viking II win56%

Draw20%

Varhaug win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–19.0%
1–17.8%
3–16.9%
2–26.6%
2–06.1%

Recent form

Viking II

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vindbjart · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odd II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Våg · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Staal Jørpeland · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Varhaug · 4-0 (W)

Varhaug

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vindbjart · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Madla · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Våg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Staal Jørpeland · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flekkerøy · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	24	15	6	3	34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	14	4	6	21	46
3	Flekkerøy	24	12	3	9	7	39
4	Varhaug	24	11	6	7	6	39
5	Vindbjart	24	12	2	10	19	38
6	Brodd	24	11	3	10	6	36
7	Viking II	24	10	5	9	21	35
8	Våg	24	11	2	11	2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	10	3	11	-3	33
10	Odd II	24	8	5	11	-14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	7	5	12	-15	26
12	Hinna	24	7	5	12	-23	26
13	Haugesund II	24	7	4	13	-22	25
14	Åkra	24	5	3	16	-39	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Viking II win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.