Viking vs KFUM Oslo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Viking and 1.18 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Viking the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Viking win

67.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.60 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Viking home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
KFUM Oslo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Viking to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Viking and 1.18 for KFUM Oslo, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Viking win68%

Draw17%

KFUM Oslo win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.1%
3–17.9%
2–07.8%
1–17.0%
3–06.7%

Recent form

Viking

2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fredrikstad · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Madla · 3-0 (W)

KFUM Oslo

2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hønefoss · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Start · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viking	23	18	2	3	37	56
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	18	2	4	37	56
3	Molde	23	12	4	7	17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	12	4	8	15	40
5	Tromso	23	11	7	5	11	40
6	Lillestrom	23	11	3	9	1	36
7	Brann	23	9	2	12	3	29
8	Valerenga	24	8	5	11	-7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	8	5	10	-8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	8	5	10	-9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	7	7	9	-6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	7	5	12	-18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	6	6	11	-8	24
14	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	-12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	-24	19
16	Start	23	4	4	15	-29	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Viking win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.