Viking vs Tromso Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.80 expected goals for Viking and 1.38 for Tromso, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Viking the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Viking win

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.80 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Viking home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tromso away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Viking win67%

Draw16%

Tromso win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.3%
3–17.7%
2–06.0%
1–15.9%
2–25.7%

Recent form

Viking

2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Madla · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrom · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 8-1 (W)
2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord · 1-1 (D)

Tromso

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-20T15:00:00.000Z · Viking 1-1 Tromso (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · Viking 3-1 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2025-04-27T17:15:00.000Z · Viking 4-4 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2024-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · Viking 2-2 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2024-05-05T17:15:00.000Z · Viking 2-1 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2024-02-24T14:00:00.000Z · Viking 1-0 Tromso (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-02-24T14:00:00.000Z · Viking 1-0 Tromso (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-10-22T17:15:00.000Z · Viking 3-4 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2023-04-23T15:00:00.000Z · Viking 1-1 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2022-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · Viking 2-2 Tromso (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viking	22	17	2	3	36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	21	16	2	3	34	50
3	Tromso	21	11	5	5	11	38
4	Molde	21	11	3	7	12	36
5	Rosenborg	21	10	3	8	9	33
6	Lillestrom	21	10	2	9	-1	32
7	Brann	22	9	2	11	5	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	8	4	9	-7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	6	7	8	-5	25
10	KFUM Oslo	21	7	4	10	-10	25
11	Sandefjord	21	6	5	10	-6	23
12	Valerenga	21	6	5	10	-9	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	6	5	10	-15	23
14	Aalesund	21	4	9	8	-13	21
15	Kristiansund BK	21	5	4	12	-19	19
16	Start	21	4	4	13	-22	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Viking win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.