Ólafsvíkurvöllur · Analysis updated 09:58 UTC
Vikingur Olafsiik vs Haukar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Vikingur Olafsiik and 2.13 for Haukar, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Haukar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haukar win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vikingur Olafsiik home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Haukar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haukar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Vikingur Olafsiik and 2.13 for Haukar, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.7%
- 1–36.6%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Vikingur Olafsiik
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · A vs KFG · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Magni · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Thróttur Vogar · 2-1 (W)
Haukar
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Selfoss · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Kormákur / Hvöt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kári · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Selfoss · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 47 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Kári | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 42 |
| 4 | Dalvík / Reynir | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| 5 | Vikingur Olafsiik | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 31 |
| 6 | Fjolnir | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 30 |
| 7 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 27 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 25 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | -9 | 23 |
| 11 | KFG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -20 | 22 |
| 12 | Hvíti riddarinn | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -26 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haukar win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.