· Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Víkingur Reykjavík W vs Stjarnan W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Víkingur Reykjavík W and 1.90 for Stjarnan W, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Víkingur Reykjavík W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Víkingur Reykjavík W win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Víkingur Reykjavík W home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stjarnan W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.8%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Víkingur Reykjavík W
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan W · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FH W · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Breidablik W · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valur W · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Thróttur Reykjavík W · 2-3 (L)
Stjarnan W
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Víkingur Reykjavík W · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Thróttur Reykjavík W · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-06T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Valur W · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FH W · 3-4 (L)
- 2025-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Breidablik W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Víkingur Reykjavík W 1-1 Stjarnan W (Úrvalsdeild Women)
- 2025-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · Víkingur Reykjavík W 2-1 Stjarnan W (Úrvalsdeild Women)
- 2025-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · Víkingur Reykjavík W 6-2 Stjarnan W (Úrvalsdeild Women)
- 2024-06-26T18:00:00.000Z · Víkingur Reykjavík W 3-2 Stjarnan W (Úrvalsdeild Women)
- 2024-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · Víkingur Reykjavík W 2-1 Stjarnan W (Úrvalsdeild Women)
Úrvalsdeild Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breidablik W | 17 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 46 |
| 2 | FH W | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 38 |
| 3 | Thróttur Reykjavík W | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | Valur W | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Víkingur Reykjavík W | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Stjarnan W | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 25 |
| 7 | Thór / KA W | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -10 | 21 |
| 8 | Fram W | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -19 | 21 |
| 9 | Tindastóll W | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 17 |
| 10 | Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Víkingur Reykjavík W win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.