Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Großbardorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Viktoria Aschaffenburg and 1.16 for Großbardorf, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Viktoria Aschaffenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Viktoria Aschaffenburg win

58.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Großbardorf away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Viktoria Aschaffenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Viktoria Aschaffenburg and 1.16 for Großbardorf, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Viktoria Aschaffenburg win59%

Draw21%

Großbardorf win21%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.4%
2–08.4%
1–08.1%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiden · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Hof · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kornburg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs ASV Neumarkt · 1-3 (L)

Großbardorf

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Bamberg · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Regensburg · 2-6 (L)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	16	14	1	1	29	43
2	Würzburger FV	16	9	4	3	13	31
3	Bayern Hof	16	8	5	3	11	29
4	Eintracht Bamberg	15	8	4	3	13	28
5	Kornburg	15	7	6	2	14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	16	7	5	4	10	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	6	5	5	6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	16	6	4	6	8	22
10	Stadeln	16	5	6	5	-7	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	6	1	9	-5	19
12	Großbardorf	16	6	1	9	-7	19
13	Weiden	16	4	5	7	-8	17
14	Ammerthal	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	DJK Bamberg	16	3	5	8	-14	14
16	Nordlingen	16	3	5	8	-16	14
17	Ingolstadt II	16	3	4	9	-11	13
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	1	3	12	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Viktoria Aschaffenburg win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.