Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Würzburger FV Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Viktoria Aschaffenburg and 1.75 for Würzburger FV, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Würzburger FV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Würzburger FV win

47.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Würzburger FV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Würzburger FV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Viktoria Aschaffenburg and 1.75 for Würzburger FV, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Viktoria Aschaffenburg win29%

Draw23%

Würzburger FV win48%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.7%
1–29.4%
0–18.1%
2–17.1%
0–27.1%

Recent form

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiden · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Hof · 2-2 (D)

Würzburger FV

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stadeln · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Regensburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Weiden · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Hof · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kornburg · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	16	14	1	1	29	43
2	Würzburger FV	16	9	4	3	13	31
3	Bayern Hof	16	8	5	3	11	29
4	Eintracht Bamberg	15	8	4	3	13	28
5	Kornburg	15	7	6	2	14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	16	7	5	4	10	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	6	5	5	6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	16	6	4	6	8	22
10	Stadeln	16	5	6	5	-7	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	6	1	9	-5	19
12	Großbardorf	16	6	1	9	-7	19
13	Weiden	16	4	5	7	-8	17
14	Ammerthal	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	DJK Bamberg	16	3	5	8	-14	14
16	Nordlingen	16	3	5	8	-16	14
17	Ingolstadt II	16	3	4	9	-11	13
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	1	3	12	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Würzburger FV win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.