Viktoria Žižkov vs Třinec Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Viktoria Žižkov and 1.70 for Třinec, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Třinec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Viktoria Žižkov home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Třinec away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Viktoria Žižkov win32%

Draw24%

Třinec win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.7%
1–29.1%
0–17.7%
2–17.5%
0–26.5%

Recent form

Viktoria Žižkov

2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Třinec · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Příbram · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kladno · 0-3 (L)

Třinec

2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Karviná · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vlašim · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 3-0 Třinec (FNL)
2022-04-17T08:15:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 2-2 Třinec (FNL)
2021-10-02T08:15:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 0-1 Třinec (FNL)
2021-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 0-2 Třinec (FNL)
2020-11-15T13:00:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 0-2 Třinec (FNL)
2020-06-15T15:00:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 3-1 Třinec (FNL)
2019-09-21T08:15:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 2-4 Třinec (FNL)
2019-05-11T08:15:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 0-4 Třinec (FNL)
2018-11-04T09:15:00.000Z · Viktoria Žižkov 0-3 Třinec (FNL)

FNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Karviná	9	6	0	3	7	18
2	Ústí nad Labem	9	5	3	1	7	18
3	Dukla Praha	9	5	2	2	5	17
4	Vysočina Jihlava	9	5	1	3	5	16
5	Příbram	9	3	5	1	1	14
6	Slavia Praha II	9	3	4	2	4	13
7	Táborsko	9	3	4	2	1	13
8	Vlašim	9	3	3	3	3	12
9	Baník Ostrava II	9	3	2	4	3	11
10	Kladno	9	2	4	3	-1	10
11	Opava	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Viktoria Žižkov	9	3	1	5	-8	10
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Prostějov	9	1	5	3	-1	8
15	Třinec	9	1	4	4	-7	7
16	Hanácká	9	1	3	5	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.