Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Inhulets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Viktoriya Mykolaivka and 1.13 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Viktoriya Mykolaivka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inhulets away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Viktoriya Mykolaivka win38%

Draw28%

Inhulets win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–011.7%
0–111.0%
0–09.8%
2–17.9%

Recent form

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Inhulets · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 0-1 (L)

Inhulets

2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T08:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2-2 Inhulets (Persha Liga)
2025-10-29T10:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 0-1 Inhulets (Cup)
2025-10-19T10:30:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2-4 Inhulets (Persha Liga)
2023-11-19T10:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 0-1 Inhulets (Persha Liga)
2023-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 0-3 Inhulets (Persha Liga)
2023-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1-0 Inhulets (Cup)

Persha Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	7	4	2	7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	7	3	3	13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	7	3	3	7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	7	2	3	5	23
6	Kulykiv	12	6	3	3	11	21
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	13	4	5	4	1	17
8	Inhulets	12	5	2	5	-3	17
9	Prykarpattia	13	4	4	5	-2	16
10	Nyva Ternopil	12	3	6	3	2	15
11	Metal Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	-3	15
12	UCSA	13	3	5	5	-3	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	13	4	1	8	-10	13
14	Chernihiv	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	2	3	8	-20	9
16	Polissya II	13	1	5	7	-9	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.