Yuvileiny Stadium · Analysis updated 05:41 UTC
Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Metal Kharkiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Viktoriya Mykolaivka and 0.91 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Viktoriya Mykolaivka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Viktoriya Mykolaivka win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metal Kharkiv away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Viktoriya Mykolaivka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Viktoriya Mykolaivka and 0.91 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.0%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Inhulets · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 0-1 (L)
Metal Kharkiv
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yarud Mariupol' · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Prykarpattia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Viktoriya Mykolaivka win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.