Yuvileiny Stadium · Analysis updated 23:12 UTC
Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Viktoriya Mykolaivka and 0.68 for Nyva Ternopil, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Viktoriya Mykolaivka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Viktoriya Mykolaivka win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nyva Ternopil away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 2–012.6%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Inhulets · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 0-1 (L)
Nyva Ternopil
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernihiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1-3 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2026-04-03T09:30:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1-0 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2025-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1-2 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2025-05-30T10:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 3-0 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2025-04-27T10:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 0-0 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2018-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2-1 Nyva Ternopil (Cup)
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Nyva Ternopil | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Viktoriya Mykolaivka win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.