Yuvileiny Stadium · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Yarud Mariupol' Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Viktoriya Mykolaivka and 1.30 for Yarud Mariupol', a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Yarud Mariupol' the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yarud Mariupol' away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yarud Mariupol' to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Viktoriya Mykolaivka and 1.30 for Yarud Mariupol', a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Inhulets · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 0-1 (L)
Yarud Mariupol'
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Polissya II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | UCSA | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.