Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga · Referee Afro Rocha De Carvalho Filho, Brazil · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Vila Nova vs Londrina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Vila Nova and 1.28 for Londrina, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Vila Nova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vila Nova home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Londrina away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vila Nova to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Vila Nova and 1.28 for Londrina, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Vila Nova
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T22:30:00.000Z · H vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)
Londrina
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Avai · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vila Nova · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 62 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 61 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | -55 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.