Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga · Referee Maguielson Lima Barbosa, Brazil · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Vila Nova and 1.00 for Ponte Preta, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Vila Nova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vila Nova win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vila Nova home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ponte Preta away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–06.9%
Recent form
Vila Nova
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T22:30:00.000Z · H vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)
Ponte Preta
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CRB · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sport Recife · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs São Bernardo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T23:30:00.000Z · Vila Nova 6-0 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2026-04-11T21:00:00.000Z · Vila Nova 1-0 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2024-11-11T21:30:00.000Z · Vila Nova 2-1 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2024-07-24T00:30:00.000Z · Vila Nova 0-2 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2023-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · Vila Nova 1-1 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2023-05-28T14:00:00.000Z · Vila Nova 0-1 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2022-10-08T22:00:00.000Z · Vila Nova 1-1 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2022-06-29T00:30:00.000Z · Vila Nova 1-1 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2021-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · Vila Nova 1-1 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
- 2021-07-04T00:30:00.000Z · Vila Nova 0-0 Ponte Preta (Serie B)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 61 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 60 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 60 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 57 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 56 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | -6 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -5 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -1 | 41 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -10 | 36 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | -33 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | -55 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vila Nova win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.