· Analysis updated 05:08 UTC
Vila Real FC U20 vs Ferroviario U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Vila Real FC U20 and 0.63 for Ferroviario U20, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Vila Real FC U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vila Real FC U20 win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vila Real FC U20 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ferroviario U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vila Real FC U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 23% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Vila Real FC U20 and 0.63 for Ferroviario U20, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 2–014.1%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Vila Real FC U20
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceará U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceará U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianca U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta CE U20 · 0-1 (L)
Ferroviario U20
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Esporte de Patos U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Horizonte U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Anjos do Céu U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tirol U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Quixadá U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Ferroviario U20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Cearense U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fortaleza U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 | Floresta CE U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Alianca U20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 7 | Juazeiro EC U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vila Real FC U20 win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.