· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Vila Real FC U20 vs Juazeiro EC U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.18 expected goals for Vila Real FC U20 and 0.70 for Juazeiro EC U20, a combined total of 4.87. That distribution gives Vila Real FC U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 92%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 92% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vila Real FC U20 win
92.2% probability
Expected goals
4.18 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vila Real FC U20 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Juazeiro EC U20 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vila Real FC U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 92%, against 92% / 5% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.18 goals for Vila Real FC U20 and 0.70 for Juazeiro EC U20, a combined 4.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
8%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–09.7%
- 3–09.3%
- 5–08.1%
- 4–16.8%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Vila Real FC U20
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceará U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceará U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianca U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta CE U20 · 0-1 (L)
Juazeiro EC U20
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiangua CE U20 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceará U20 · 0-10 (L)
- 2026-06-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Horizonte U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Vila Real FC U20 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Anjos do Céu U20 · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tirol U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Quixadá U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Ferroviario U20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Cearense U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fortaleza U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 | Floresta CE U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Alianca U20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 7 | Juazeiro EC U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vila Real FC U20 win, at 92.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 92% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.