· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Vila Real vs Esporte Limoeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Vila Real and 0.91 for Esporte Limoeiro, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Vila Real the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vila Real home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Esporte Limoeiro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vila Real to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Vila Real and 0.91 for Esporte Limoeiro, a combined 2.07 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.7%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Vila Real
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Pacatuba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacatuba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tianguá · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Calouros do Ar · 2-1 (W)
Esporte Limoeiro
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Acopiara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Calouros do Ar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmacia · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.