· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Vila Real vs Palmacia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vila Real and 0.75 for Palmacia, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Vila Real the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vila Real win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vila Real home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vila Real to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Vila Real and 0.75 for Palmacia, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–010.6%
- 0–110.2%
Recent form
Vila Real
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Pacatuba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacatuba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tianguá · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Calouros do Ar · 2-1 (W)
Palmacia
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacatuba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Esporte Limoeiro · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tianguá · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vila Real · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vila Real win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.